Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
