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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.